Structural trends

The durable shifts reshaping where solar value sits.

Munshot analysis

The battleground moved from the cheapest MW to the most usable MW.

~90%

firm / dispatchable (FDRE + RTC + solar-storage) share of central RE awards · 8M-FY26 — a fraction of that in 2023.

Firm + storage share of awards — our tender feed (FY26 quarters)

So what · Own firming & storage capability; pure-solar EPC and merchant IPPs are the losing end.

CRISIL · IEEFA-JMK · firm tariffs ₹4.25–6.75 vs solar ~₹2.5Tender mix
Munshot analysis

India is module self-sufficient but cell-dependent — and that gap IS the value.

119 vs 9 GW

module vs cell capacity added in 2025; ALMM List-II mandates domestic cells ~Jun 2026; <1.9% of domestic cells reach the open market.

Cell vs module nameplate, GW (FY21→26)

So what · Cell-integrated players capture the protected margin; standalone assemblers get squeezed.

Mercom · CRISIL · Down To EarthManufacturing
Munshot analysis

Indian solar manufacturing re-rated from commodity to profit pool.

3.8% → 22.3%

manufacturing pool EBITDA margin, FY22 trough → FY26 (7.1% back in FY20).

Listed module / cell pool EBITDA margin % (FY20→26)

So what · Protection + US export turned loss-making assembly into a 20%+ pool — but the re-rating hinges on protection durability.

Company filingsProfit Pools
Source Munshot synthesis · evidence cited per card· As of 21 Aug 2026